Case 001 · Published July 2026
They’re 62 with $840,000. Can they retire?
Mark and Diane are fictional composites with a real question. We built their plan from primary sources, compared three Social Security strategies, taxed every withdrawal, and then handed their first five years of retirement a bear market on purpose.
Conditional yes — under the assumptions shown, the plan works, and the conditions are listed below. The condition that matters most is not the portfolio. It’s $667 a month.
The film of this case premieres with the channel. The research doesn't wait for it.
The household
Both 62, no pension, a small low-rate mortgage, and a desired lifestyle budget of $60,000 a year — before separately modeled healthcare and federal tax. Every line is a labeled case input.
| Item | Amount | Treatment in the model |
|---|---|---|
| Traditional retirement accounts | $610,000 | Taxable on distribution; RMD rules applied at 75 |
| Roth accounts | $130,000 | Treated as qualified tax-free distributions |
| Cash and taxable savings | $100,000 | Used first after required distributions |
| Total investable assets | $840,000 | Starting portfolio |
| Home value | $475,000 | Shown but excluded from spending portfolio |
| Mortgage balance | $75,000 | Narrative context; payment embedded in spending |
| Mortgage rate | 3.1% | Assumption |
| Mortgage payment | $12,000 / year | Embedded in lifestyle spending through 69 |
| Mortgage end age | Age 70 | Lifestyle spending declines by $12,000 at 70 |
ASSUMPTIONMark and Diane are fictional composites; every balance-sheet line is a labeled case input. Home equity is deliberately excluded from the spending portfolio.
The strategies
Three claiming strategies, compared like for like: both claim at 62, both wait for 67, or the split — Diane claims at 62 and Mark, the higher earner, delays to 70.
| Strategy | Annual at 62 | Annual at 67 | Annual at 70 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both claim at 62 | $36,120 | $36,120 | $36,120 |
| Both claim at 67 | $0 until 67 | $51,600 | $51,600 |
| Diane 62 / Mark 70 | $13,440 | $13,440 | $53,616 |
MODEL OUTPUTHousehold Social Security income by claiming strategy, from the fictional benefits supplied for this case.
The results
A smooth 3% real return makes every strategy survive to 95. The deliberately adverse opening sequence — minus 20%, minus 8%, then a slow recovery — is where the plan is actually decided.
| Strategy | Smooth 3% real path | Deliberate stress path |
|---|---|---|
| Both claim at 62 | About $514,000 at 95 | Depleted around age 92 |
| Both claim at 67 | About $750,000 at 95 | About $166,000 at 95 |
| Diane 62 / Mark 70 | About $721,000 at 95 | About $128,000 at 95 |
MODEL OUTPUTSame household, same spending. The stress path opens with −20%, −8%, +2%, +5%, +7%, then 3% real — designed for explanation, not a forecast.
The sensitivity — $667 a month
Same portfolio, same market path, same claiming strategy. The only change between rows is lifestyle spending — and the gap between the first and last row is about fourteen years of portfolio longevity.
| Lifestyle spending | Per month | Outcome on the stress path |
|---|---|---|
| $56,000 a year | $4,667 | About $408,000 at age 95 |
| $58,000 a year | $4,833 | About $287,000 at age 95 |
| $60,000 a year | $5,000 | About $166,000 at age 95 |
| $62,000 a year | $5,167 | About $44,000 at age 95 |
| $64,000 a year | $5,333 | Depleted around age 90 |
| $66,000 a year | $5,500 | Depleted around age 85 |
| $68,000 a year | $5,667 | Depleted around age 81 |
MODEL OUTPUTSame portfolio, same market path, same claiming strategy (both at 67). The only change is spending.
One pre-committed guardrail — spend $6,000 less the year after a bad return year — moves the stress-path outcome by about $35,000:
| Spending rule | Stress-path outcome |
|---|---|
| No guardrail — spending fixed | About $166,000 at age 95 |
| Guardrail — spend $6,000 less the year after a real return below −5% | About $201,000 at age 95 |
MODEL OUTPUTPre-committed flexibility has measurable value; the exact rule matters less than agreeing to one in advance.
The conditions
A verdict is only honest with its conditions attached — both the ones that support it and the ones that would reverse it.
Conditions supporting the verdict
The conditional yes is supported when:
- lifestyle spending is genuinely near $60,000;
- the $12,000 mortgage payment ends at age 70 as assumed;
- at least $6,000 is deferrable after bad return years;
- healthcare is verified locally;
- Social Security timing is tested rather than defaulted;
- the couple accepts no explicit legacy target;
- both spouses are modeled alive through 95;
- no major long-term-care event occurs;
- home equity remains a reserve rather than a required funding source.
Conditions that reverse or materially weaken it
The answer moves toward “not yet” if:
- actual lifestyle spending is closer to $64,000–$68,000;
- all spending is fixed;
- healthcare costs materially exceed the assumption;
- a large inheritance target is non-negotiable;
- long-term care must be funded from the portfolio;
- the mortgage payment or end date differs;
- the portfolio has high fees, concentrated risk, or less liquidity than assumed;
- state taxes are significant;
- the claimed Social Security estimates are inaccurate;
- the couple cannot tolerate spending reductions after market losses.
The receipts
Every claim in this case, graded and sourced. Generated from the case’s research ledgers — 26 primary sources, 50 graded claims.
The source ledger (26)
| ID | Agency | Title | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|
| S01 | Social Security Administration | Early or Late Retirement | early-claim reduction formula; 30% reduction at 62 when FRA is 67 |
| S02 | Social Security Administration | Delayed Retirement — Born in 1960 or later | FRA 67; 124% at age 70; Medicare reminder |
| S03 | Social Security Administration | Retirement Benefits publication | retirement-benefit mechanics; spouse-benefit context |
| S04 | Social Security Administration | When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits | illustrative 62/67/70 benefit percentages |
| S05 | Social Security Administration | 20 CFR 404.313 — delayed credits and survivors | delayed retirement credits may increase a surviving spouse's benefit |
| S06 | Social Security Administration | Receiving Benefits While Working | 2026 retirement earnings test thresholds |
| S07 | Medicare.gov | Medicare costs | 2026 Part A and Part B costs; Part D/Medigap variability |
| S08 | Medicare.gov | When can I sign up for Medicare? | initial enrollment period around age 65 |
| S09 | Medicare.gov | How do I sign up for Medicare? | automatic versus active enrollment based on Social Security timing |
| S10 | HealthCare.gov | What's included as Marketplace income | most IRA/401(k) withdrawals count; qualified Roth distributions generally do not |
| S11 | HealthCare.gov | Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) | Marketplace MAGI includes non-taxable Social Security and tax-exempt interest |
| S12 | Internal Revenue Service | Questions and answers on the Premium Tax Credit | 2026 PTC income eligibility; 400% FPL cap; 9.96% maximum applicable percentage |
| S13 | HealthCare.gov | Federal Poverty Level glossary | 2025 and 2026 poverty guideline amounts; family of two |
| S14 | Internal Revenue Service | 2026 tax inflation adjustments | 2026 MFJ tax brackets and standard deduction |
| S15 | Internal Revenue Service | 2026 filing season resources for seniors | temporary enhanced senior deduction 2025-2028 |
| S16 | Internal Revenue Service | Internal Revenue Bulletin 2025-45 | 2026 regular additional standard deduction for age 65+ |
| S17 | Internal Revenue Service | Publication 915 — Social Security and Equivalent Railroad Retirement Benefits | Social Security provisional-income thresholds and taxable-benefit formula |
| S18 | Internal Revenue Service | Topic 409 — Capital gains and losses | 2026 0% long-term capital-gain threshold for MFJ |
| S19 | Internal Revenue Service | Internal Revenue Bulletin 2024-33 | RMD applicable age 75 for people born after 1959 |
| S20 | Internal Revenue Service | Publication 590-B | Uniform Lifetime Table divisor 24.6 at age 75 and later divisors |
| S21 | Medicare.gov | Long-term care coverage | Medicare generally does not cover custodial long-term care |
| S22 | YouTube Help | Disclosing use of generative AI content | realistic synthetic imagery requires upload disclosure; disclosure does not itself limit monetization |
| S23 | YouTube Help | YouTube channel monetization policies | originality; inauthentic/mass-produced content policy |
| S24 | Remotion | Official Remotion AI system prompt | project structure and Composition conventions |
| S25 | Remotion | staticFile() | loading public assets |
| S26 | Remotion | Render CLI | render command and props |
The claim ledger (50)
| ID | Claim | Class | Sources | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C001 | Mark and Diane are both age 62. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C002 | They have $840,000 of investable assets. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C003 | At $60k lifestyle under the stress path and both claiming at 67, about $166k remains at 95. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C004 | At $68k lifestyle under the same stress path, the portfolio depletes around age 81. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C005 | $8,000 per year equals about $667 per month. | CALCULATION | — | verified |
| C006 | The people shown are fictional composites and visuals are synthetic. | DISCLOSURE | S22 | verified |
| C007 | $610k is in traditional retirement accounts. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C008 | $130k is in Roth accounts. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C009 | $100k is cash/taxable. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C010 | Home value is $475k and mortgage balance $75k at 3.1%. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C011 | Year-one modeled need is $78k before federal tax. | CALCULATION | — | verified |
| C012 | At 65, modeled cash need falls to $73k before federal tax. | CALCULATION | — | verified |
| C013 | At 70, modeled cash need falls to $61k before federal tax. | CALCULATION | — | verified |
| C014 | 2026 standard Part B premium is $202.90/person/month. | FACT | S07 | verified |
| C015 | 2026 Part B deductible is $283. | FACT | S07 | verified |
| C016 | For people born in 1960 or later, FRA is 67. | FACT | S01, S02, S03 | verified |
| C017 | Claiming at 62 with FRA 67 reduces benefit 30%. | FACT | S01 | verified |
| C018 | Claiming at 70 with FRA 67 produces 124% of FRA benefit. | FACT | S02 | verified |
| C019 | Both at 62 equals $36,120/year. | MODEL OUTPUT | S01 | verified |
| C020 | Both at 67 equals $51,600/year. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C021 | Diane 62 / Mark 70 equals $53,616/year from age 70. | MODEL OUTPUT | S01, S02 | verified |
| C022 | Delaying higher-earner benefit can strengthen survivor benefit. | FACT | S05 | verified |
| C023 | Both at 62 leaves $41,880 portfolio need in year one before tax. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C024 | Both waiting to 67 requires full $78k bridge ages 62–64. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C025 | At 67, portfolio cash need before modeled tax is about $21,400. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C026 | At 70, portfolio cash need before modeled tax is about $9,400. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C027 | Model uses constant 2026 purchasing power. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C028 | Base path is 3% real after assumed costs. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C029 | Both spouses are modeled alive through 95. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C030 | RMD age is 75 for people born after 1959. | FACT | S19 | verified |
| C031 | Age-75 uniform lifetime denominator is 24.6. | FACT | S20 | verified |
| C032 | 2026 MFJ standard deduction is $32,200. | FACT | S14 | verified |
| C033 | 2026 additional aged deduction is $1,650/person. | FACT | S16 | verified |
| C034 | Temporary $6k senior deduction ends after 2028 under current law. | FACT | S15 | verified |
| C035 | Up to 85% of Social Security may be taxable. | FACT | S17 | verified |
| C036 | Base ending balances are about $514k/$750k/$721k. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C037 | Stress sequence is -20%, -8%, +2%, +5%, +7%, then +3%. | ASSUMPTION | — | verified |
| C038 | Stress both62 depletes around age 92. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C039 | Stress both67 ends about $166k. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C040 | Stress hybrid ends about $128k. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C041 | At $62k lifestyle, stress ending balance is about $44k. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C042 | At $64k lifestyle, depletion occurs around age 90. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C043 | Guardrail raises stress ending balance to about $201k. | MODEL OUTPUT | — | verified |
| C044 | Most traditional IRA/401k withdrawals count as Marketplace income; qualified Roth distributions generally do not. | FACT | S10, S11 | verified |
| C045 | Pre-Medicare cost must be replaced with local quote. | VERDICT | S09, S10, S11, S12 | verified |
| C046 | Medicare generally does not cover most long-term custodial care. | FACT | S21 | verified |
| C047 | Verdict is conditional yes. | VERDICT | — | verified |
| C048 | At $68k with no flexibility, verdict changes to not yet. | VERDICT | — | verified |
| C049 | Realistic generated scenes require AI-use disclosure on YouTube. | FACT | S22 | verified |
| C050 | Channel content must be original and not generic/mass-produced; no AI expert persona on finance. | FACT | S23 | verified |
Generated 2026-07-19 from ep001/research/SOURCE_LEDGER.csv, ep001/research/CLAIM_LEDGER.csv. Regenerated on every publish — the tables above are never edited by hand.
Run it yourself.
The Retirement Stress Test is the exact model behind this case — Mark and Diane’s numbers pre-loaded, a column for yours. The workbook and the $667 Rule brief are free downloads.
Corrections — standing
Corrections — standing section
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